Dry air and wind shear will combine to slow development of an inner core, and none of the top intensity models are predicting rapid intensification of Nicole. (Image credit: ) Intensity forecast for Nicole: slow intensificationĪs Nicole heads toward Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday, wind shear is predicted to increase a notch, to 15-25 knots, as strong upper-level winds out of the southwest from the subtropical jet stream affect the storm. The model predicted Nicole would hit Florida Thursday morning as a category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds and bring widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches along its path. Predicted rainfall amounts for the 5-day period ending at 7 a.m. Tropical storm watches are up for much of the Gulf Coast of Florida 1-3 feet of storm surge is expected in Tampa Bay, with 2-4 feet from Tampa Bay to the Suwannee River. fHnk88TXMN- Craig Setzer November 8, 2022Īs Nicole crosses the Florida Peninsula, a trough of low pressure passing to the north will turn the storm to the north and then northeast, and it’s possible Nicole will briefly reemerge over the northeast Gulf as a weaker system. Hurricane warning issued due to time of impacts within 36 hour window. Hurricane WARNING Palm Beach north, Hurricane WATCH/Tropical Storm WARNING Broward, Tropical Storm Watch Miami-Dade.ġ0AM Tue Nicole NHC data showing no significant forecast track changes in this advisory. The timing of this shift is still fuzzy in the models, and the center of Nicole could cross the coast anywhere between West Palm Beach and Daytona Beach. On Wednesday night or early Thursday morning, steering currents will shift and drive Nicole more to the west-northwest into the east coast of Florida. Nicole will continue to the west or west-southwest through Wednesday evening, when this track will bring it very near the northwestern Bahamas, where hurricane warnings are in effect.
(Image credit: ) Track forecast for Nicole The ensemble mean forecast is the heavy black line.
The time in hours from the model initialization time is in gray text. Individual forecasts of the 31 ensemble members are the lines color-coded by the wind speed in knots they predict for Nicole red colors correspond to a category 1 hurricane. Track forecasts out to five days for Nicole from the 6Z Tuesday, Nov. Upper-level winds out of the southwest were creating moderate wind shear of 10 -20 knots, and these winds were driving dry air into the core of Nicole, slowing development. However, there was plenty of dry air on the south side of the storm, associated with a decaying upper-level low-pressure system. Nicole had modestly favorable conditions for development, with very warm ocean waters for this time of the year of 27-28 degrees Celsius (81-82☏) – about 1 degree Celsius (1.8☏) above average. Beginning in 2002, these cyclones received names from the official lists of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean.
Subtropical cyclones were officially recognized by the National Hurricane Center in 1972. Nicole is expected to make a transition to a tropical storm later today. The breadth of Nicole’s tropical-storm-force winds is remarkable less than 2% of all 6-hourly named storm “fixes” since 2004 showed such a large wind field, according to Michael Lowry. Nicole was a large storm, with tropical-storm-force winds that covered a region of ocean larger than the state of Florida. Thunderstorm coverage was thin on the south side, though, where dry air was present. However, Nicole had developed a concentrated area of intensifying heavy thunderstorms near its circulation center, and this change in structure prompted the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to define Nicole as a tropical storm rather than a subtropical storm on Tuesday morning. Satellite images showed that Nicole still had somewhat of a subtropical appearance, with heavy thunderstorm activity in wide bands arcing to the west, north, and east of the center. EST Tuesday, Nicole was centered about 420 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida, headed west at 9 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and a central pressure of 992 mb. Nicole is a large storm – and that means widespread coastal floodingĪt 1 p.m.
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